Fi-Fi is at her altitude limit, i.e., 30 knots between low and high speed regime. There have been studies that concluded Fi-Fi's artificial intelligence is overly paranoid in this regard and that we could fly higher, if the Captain deems it safe. Curiously, these results surfaced when fuel costs exceeded 50 bucks a barrel. Uh, no thanks... I am sticking with what I learned in groundschool all those years ago. Thirty knots is minimum safe spread in smooth air.
We are paralleling the Sierra Nevada range en route to Alaska with 114 passengers. The sky is a cold blue and the winds aloft are light. I can see Mono Lake to the west. Even with the color filtering qualities of Plexiglas, it is stunning. Truly, it is beautiful up here.
On the ground, though, it is anything but... The pilot groups of three major airlines, some 18,000 strong, are preparing offensive and defensive union warfare against themselves! It is, in air carrier terms, biblical in size and scope. At stake are thousands of pilot jobs, one of them being yours truly, as airline Chiefs look for merger partners. The seniority list is the Holy Grail in this business. Nothing else is more important. The airlines cannot stand the high cost of oil using their current business models. Soon, there will be furloughs on a large scale as the airlines re-group for $120 plus oil.
What will service be like? Think of the old Aeroflot from the Soviet days; chickens and pigs in the aisles... Aircraft cockpits with missing instruments. You think I am kidding? We have to carry all sorts of weird animals now because of "comfort animal" legislation. Fuel will be heavily subsidized by the government, i.e., the front half of the camel inside the tent. Maintenance standards will be re-examined when the government is faced with the costs of keeping that A320 or B757 airborne. Oops! Maybe AA did not really need to re-tie those nose gear wire bundles after all.
Ernest K. Gann's Band of Brothers not... The poop has hit the rotary oscillator.
22 comments:
What is Fi-Fi's max altitude? I guess you have to be pretty light to get up there?
Too bad about the "surface turbulence" in the industry. Pundits have been saying for a long while that there were too many seats chasing too few bottoms... we'll see.
Fly safe! Fly happy!
I didn't know Ernest K Gann wrote Band of Brothers? Is the title loaned to the HBO special, or is it the same story{ies}? Gann's book Fate is The Hunter is high on the list of favorites.
thanks for the aerial recon Dave. you're looking at the east entrance to Yosemite Nat. Park consequently where I'll be hiking for a few days on the 1st of May. i've been wondering what the snowpack will be like especially in a valley about 25 mi. NW of Mono Lake at 7500'
if you could have just waited an extra 20 sec on the pic LOL
thanks for all the great shots
lawrence- it is a different Band of Brothers about airline pilots written in the 60s.
Beautiful shot! Is Mono Lake shrinking? As a CA resident, I think the snow pack is pretty thick this year. However, it's been fairly warm lately so it may be melting fast!
Dave,
I bid you good luck in the coming Jiha... I mean, negotiations.
I found your photo of Mono Lake particularly nice as I'm currently day-dreaming of flying my Mooney out there -- on the far shore left side -- is a small airport at the town of Lee Vining. I think I'll head out there with my camping gear, bicycle, and camera for a few days as soon as I can manage the time...
The industry is exploring all options to make a buck.
Hang in there Dave... As one who faced (faces?) industry down sizing, sometimes the rumors are worse than reality. Look at it this way, at least you don't work for Air Italia.
Sounds like they better set their sights a little higher than $120...just heard on the radio that it's up to $118 this morning and only going one direction...
Seems like there must be some real genious in play to get the pilots all fighting among themselves. Not sure that pissing off EVERYBODY is the answer to the problem!
Thanks for the nice view and the technical talk about max altitude!
Tim G in MN
gmc- max altitude is 39,100 feet. She has a soft altitude hold and will drift 100 feet either side of selected altitude for ride quality.
Much of the current per barrel price is based on speculation by commodities investors. While it won't drop to $50 anytime soon, hopefully the bubble will pop and drop it back to $70-80bbl. Of course the airlines will not then give back any concessions they got from the pilots or stop charging their newly inventive fees, but hopefully it will put a stop to it. They just better not get lazy and stop looking at alternatives or they will find themselves in this situation in another 20 years on a more permanent basis.
Dave: another outstanding photo. This is almost enough to make one reconsider his choice in careers, despite the hassles and uncertainty you face. That has to be the best office view in the world! Can you explain more about the 30 knot spread? I'm assuming this mean there is 30 knots separation between your max speed and stall speed at this altitude? I sure hope you come out ahead in the coming changes! The oil is partly so expensive because of the dollar's decline in value. I don't see anyone addressing this.
doctor s.- you are correct! The 30 knot spread is between stall regime and mach buffet. During normal cruise speed, say 80% mach, some areas of the airframe are experiencing super sonic airflow. As airframe speed increases, more of the airflow goes supersonic until weird (for an airliner)things start happening, such as the infamous mach tuck, which causes the nose to drop. On the low side, stall buffet occurs as lift seperates from the wing. This is an overly simple explanation of two very complex events. As these two events get closer, as in climbing higher and higher, you can get into a bind... The stall and mach tuck meet. The popular moniker is "coffin corner." Chuck Yeager, where are you?
Is it true that union groups for US Air and formerly America West are having open fights in terminals and parking lots and stuff? Or is that all media speculation on how bad their dispute is on the seniority list merger? Think Delta and Northwest will go equally badly?
I hope this is a reminder just how dependant we are of our natural resources. Look how it affects everyone. Good luck Dave! It makes me sick seeing the industry news on TV. I'm $30,000 into my flight education already...to late to turn back...I think I may seek a carreer in Flight Instruction after I get my Commercial and CFI ticket. I heard Pan Am Flight Academy in PHX is paying 40,000 a year salary for CFII and MEI Instructors....It might beat the Regional schedules with some quality of life....
Blake at KSLC
As long as we're buying oil from OPEC instead of using home-grown alcohol-based fuels, the cost of OPEC oil will continue to rise, terrorist states will continue to attack the US using funds we provided, airlines will continue to falter, large chunks of our largest financial institutions will continue to be purchased by foreign sovereign funds, and the US will continue to spiral towards oblivion. One solution might be to mandate flex-fuel readiness for ALL autos sold (not just "made") in the US. Read Bob Zubrin's "Energy Victory" for a detailed explanation of how such a mandate could not only stop the current madness, but reverse it. One thing's certain; until we get off the OPEC oil teat, nothing will improve.
The whole planet (let alone the US only) can't sustain production of both food and enough alcohol-based fuel while at the same time remaining suitable for life.
It is true, though, that eco-friendly alternates to oil should be explored and developed. Hydrogen-based fuel cells have my preference so far. But how long (and how high the oil price) before solutions are widespread?
Just wanted to say Hi, your blog has given me alot of insight into what I have to look forward too over the past year. Provided the bottom doesnt fall out of the airline industry, I'll be looking to be a FO of some regional by October of this year. Wish me luck, and safe flights. .
There are serious predictions out there that oil will
average $150 in two years and $225 in four. The way things look today, $150 in 2010 may be optimistic.
The factors behind this are primarily structural (fields running dry, increased demand in the developing world, supply disruption in Iraq and Nigeria, and devaluation of the US dollar) and are not expected to correct any time soon, if ever. Expensive oil is here to stay.
The current downswing in the airline biz isn't merely another cyclical downturn. Rather, it's a turning point for permanent changes in the industry. The industry will never be the same again and the 'good ole days' of affordable mass air travel may well be gone forever.
What little the average Joe knows about pilots, you get the impression that they are very stoic. Lacking in a sense of humor. This video belies that stereo-type.
Of course, flight attendants have their own cross to bear.
;)
Have a great day!
Dave, Bill and Chris here from Alaska Air. We love your photo of the "alaska state bird"... We are having a few in Kauai and were wondering if we could snag the actual hi res photo you took from below of our aircraft..... email me at stracknhuah@gmail.com. THANKS. Everytime I see a 'cactus' on the ramp in PANC I think of you. Keep bloggin man... HANG LOOSE!
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