Definition of an expert: Anybody more than 50 miles away from home with a briefcase.
I watched in amazement as the talking heads from the alphabet networks announced (breathlessly and with an understanding twinkle in their eyes) that the crew of this Dash 8-Q400 may have been flying "on auto-pilot" before the disastrous plunge into terra firma, contrary to Federal Aviation recommendations. What the *&^% are they talking about? If I, a former Dash 8-100 pilot, do not know, they sure as heck do not know.
The Dash-8 that I flew is archaic compared to this aircraft and it could handle anything that we asked of it, including relentless icing. Using the auto-pilot... Of course they were using the auto-pilot. This is a CAT (very low visibility) capable aircraft with boosted controls, big engines, and an ultra-modern flight deck with integrated flight controls, auto-pilots, and flight management computers. This thing is fast... I mean really fast. I cringe when I hear someone talking about "not wanting to get on the little prop job." This aircraft is not little... It has engines that produce more than 2,000 shaft horsepower driving 16 foot diameter paddle-blade propellers. That is serious power.
I will not try to predict what happened to this aircraft, although at first glance it appears that it might be related to airframe icing. These aircraft fly in icing conditions day in and day out with no problems. I am sure the crew could not believe what was happening even as it was rolling out of control. After the upset and the few seconds of what is going on here, they did not have enough altitude to recover.
Unfortunately, there has been at least one other high profile icing accident in a similar size aircraft. An ATR crashed south of Chicago more than a decade ago: the cause was airframe icing. Another ATR in the same time period almost crashed from the same cause, but the crew recovered in the proverbial nick of time. I heard through flight line rumor that the captain of that ATR quit flying afterwards.
I predict regulatory trouble ahead for the airlines that fly these types of aircraft.
Life on the Line continues...
I watched in amazement as the talking heads from the alphabet networks announced (breathlessly and with an understanding twinkle in their eyes) that the crew of this Dash 8-Q400 may have been flying "on auto-pilot" before the disastrous plunge into terra firma, contrary to Federal Aviation recommendations. What the *&^% are they talking about? If I, a former Dash 8-100 pilot, do not know, they sure as heck do not know.
The Dash-8 that I flew is archaic compared to this aircraft and it could handle anything that we asked of it, including relentless icing. Using the auto-pilot... Of course they were using the auto-pilot. This is a CAT (very low visibility) capable aircraft with boosted controls, big engines, and an ultra-modern flight deck with integrated flight controls, auto-pilots, and flight management computers. This thing is fast... I mean really fast. I cringe when I hear someone talking about "not wanting to get on the little prop job." This aircraft is not little... It has engines that produce more than 2,000 shaft horsepower driving 16 foot diameter paddle-blade propellers. That is serious power.
I will not try to predict what happened to this aircraft, although at first glance it appears that it might be related to airframe icing. These aircraft fly in icing conditions day in and day out with no problems. I am sure the crew could not believe what was happening even as it was rolling out of control. After the upset and the few seconds of what is going on here, they did not have enough altitude to recover.
Unfortunately, there has been at least one other high profile icing accident in a similar size aircraft. An ATR crashed south of Chicago more than a decade ago: the cause was airframe icing. Another ATR in the same time period almost crashed from the same cause, but the crew recovered in the proverbial nick of time. I heard through flight line rumor that the captain of that ATR quit flying afterwards.
I predict regulatory trouble ahead for the airlines that fly these types of aircraft.
Life on the Line continues...
30 comments:
Dave...will they ever know for sure what happened? They are hoping to finish cleanup today or tomorrow as a "minor league" snow storm is supposed to hit tonight. Thoughts? I sure am leary to climb onto a Dash 8...
Well, there is no aircraft with clean bill... as Forrest says, shit happens. But it also happens if you go by bus - and actually there was an accident here where bus crash killed about a half of its occupants - and I would be on it, were not I flying that one time when I had to change plane tickets to sooner because the airlines stopped the route...
These crashes only have that one bad thing happening to them, and its called media coverage. Dashes will suffer from this now for a while, and then, people will forget, and other crash would happen and they would prefer Dashes flying lines to ATRs, or there will be a CRJ going down and everybody will be looking for ERJ operated flights... This is nothing but a sad truth.
But still, air flight is the safest and most professional way to transport. Many many mishaps daily occur, and we know not of them - cause the crew battled them well. But it is a reason to stop flying? No...
@spencer...I would not hesitate to get in a Dash 8, especially one of the 100-300 series. IIRC this is only the second crash with a fatalities since the Dash 8 entered service around 1984. They have a substantial safety record and damn dependable. I have pass ridden home on a string of Dash8's (4 legs) when the mainline 757 mechanicaled on the last flight of the day. I am not a pilot, but have almost as many hours as a passenger ;>)
Even with the occasional aircraft accident it still much, much safer than driving. We kill over 40,000 people a year in this country with cars and car related accidents...and I don't see too many people giving up driving.
Aaron
Some preliminary reports say the autopilot was left on, a no-no in icing, masking the heavy icing because the autopilot compensated until it was too late. Non-standard procedure/pilot error. Gotta wait till the suits finish their work..
As always Dave, your post is perfect.
Seems like the Dash in question went through a zone of abnormally heavy ice - a perfect storm and completely unique to the situation, as every incident always proves to be.
spencer- yep, they will know what happened and yes I would ride on a dash 8 without hesitation.
anonymous 649- nah, I am not buying the no-autopilot thing for this aircraft. This isn't some little beech 99 flying through ice. Maybe the dash 8Q-400 captain that commented on the last post could shed some light on this.
Hello Capt. Dave,
This is probably one of the most sensible comments regarding this tragic incident, which I have read so far. I am in no way connected to the airline industry in any way. My interest in your aviation blog is somewhat personal, in the sense, that a very good friend of mine has been a cpt for a regional airline for 26 years, so, I wanted to understand a bit more what this is all about.
He's been flying the Dash 8 for many years, and despite the grueling work-schedules, still considers this plane one of the safest aircraft around + specifically under icing conditions, which he's been dealing with on a regular basis, flying in the north-east sector for YEARS. Like yourself, he reserves all judgement or speculation regarding this horrible accident, because various factors could have been involved, including human error. My friend concluded his last leg for his trip, flying the Dash, only 45 minutes before this incident, into Rochester. He mentioned, that the weather in the vicinity was quite nasty at that time, not so much the icing per se, but with high winds + wicked crosswinds during the approach + minimums. I'm not sure what this means, since I'm not a pilot, but he said, it was not a good day for flying, and probably one of the worst he's experienced in many years.
So, let's leave at that. There is no doubt in my mind, that the crew did what they could...
Love your blog
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2009/02/15/322581/ntsb-colgan-3407-pitched-up-despite-anti-stall-push.html
Dave - this may have been covered in previous comments, but could this be related to previous problems with the Dash 8? It was last year I think that a number of these airplanes had problems, to the extent that SAS grounded all of their Dash 8s for a time.
SAS sold its Dash-8 because of landing gear collapses.
Anonymous: minimums means that visibility and cloud base (ceiling) are close to the certification values of the plane -> marginal visibility for a safe landing.
I have enjoyed your blog for a long time. This accident was particularly of interest to me as I fly a similar type. The media's reporting of the incident has disgusted me. I am sorry to say but my initial thoughts lead me to believe that icing, although probably a factor, was not the cause of this accident. Watching, waiting, and hoping to learn all I can. Keep up the writing! -Lance from the "great white north".
This WSJ article contains major leakage from the investigation. The article says the captain pulled up after the stall warning, then held nose up until (what sounds like) a spin. The story also implies that they used the deicing boots improperly.
I have no idea about any of this, obviously, but I wanted to pass it along FWIW.
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I used to work ramp for the Dash 8-100. It is a very capable aircraft. Remember, aircrafts do not just fall from the sky. There is usually a series of situations that come together to halt operation of the aircraft. Air travel is safer than it has ever been so when these incidences take place, the media has to play it up. The process to reconstruct an accident is long and laborious. We won't know the answer for months. Let's wait and see what the experts have to say before we condemn anyone.
I'd fly in a Dash 8 anytime, in any weather conditions.
I'd fly in any aircraft on any proven airline anytime - as pilots do and as all those flight attendants do!
They all are professionals:
Me I just have a car driving licence. Still I go on driving in any weather condition, although I don't have to succumb to any of those exacting standards and guidelines. Those most exacting standards and guidelines airline pilots have to adhere to!
So what?
I totally agree with what you said about HOW WRONG news reporters get these things.
It's been the same since airplanes and tv crossed paths. My dad said he visited a small plane crash at a local airport. He talked to the pilot, heard what happened etc, and they did not get ONE thing right!
What else to they mess up?
As a former firefighting/HazMat instructor, I must add one pertinent detail to your definition:
"Definition of an expert: Anybody more than 50 miles away from home with a briefcase...."
...that will get you killed!"
John the Baptist
I fly frequently on Porter Air's Q400's between Ottawa and Toronto. And I love these quiet, quick and ultra-modern aircraft. They're part of the solutions of the future because they're way more fuel efficient than jets or even other similar sized propeller aircraft. I've also flown on the old Dash 8 100, 200 and 300 through all kinds of weather and, though these are loud and not as comfortable, they too are gems in their own way. The whole family can land and take off on a postage stamp and their climb rate is almost breathtaking. Give me these over an Embraer or RJ any day.
I fly frequently on Porter Air's Q400's between Ottawa and Toronto. And I love these quiet, quick and ultra-modern aircraft. They're part of the solutions of the future because they're way more fuel efficient than jets or even other similar sized propeller aircraft. I've also flown on the old Dash 8 100, 200 and 300 through all kinds of weather and, though these are loud and not as comfortable, they too are gems in their own way. The whole family can land and take off on a postage stamp and their climb rate is almost breathtaking. Give me these over an Embraer or RJ any day.
I have got to tell you guy's this story. I was leaving the mall a few days after this accident, and I heard an older man with his wife say to another couple ".... so they rebooked us on a later flight, AND IT WAS THE SAME MODEL PLANE THAT CRASHED IN BUFFALO!!!" Ugh, thinking back I wish I had the wisdom and knowledge to say something to humble this guy..... I guess let the crew and the passengers Rest in Peace would have been suffice.
Sir,
Do you know when the second ATR incident took place? I would be interested in looking into that case. Many thanks.
Dave,
I'm the Dash captain operating not too far from BUF at the same time Colgan went down.
The only tech ops manuals from DeHavilland/Bombardier I have are for the engines and electrical systems- everything else is company training material. We don't operate the 400.
Something must must must be cleared up immediately: THERE WAS NOT "ABNORMALLY HEAVY ICE" in the area. The automation is fully authorized for use in icing conditions (normal operations for us in the winter)- not severe icing conditions, which is an emergency. What we WILL do is disengage the magic, "feel" the plane in a gentle 2-axis PIO, and re-engage the magic time and again if we're picking up ice of any kind.
The windshield probe on the 1/2/300 series is an analog gauge to see how much ice and accretion rate you're encountering. I saw 1/4" of mixed (mostly rime) on it at the time and near where Colgan was, and the wings were shedding without any difficulty at all. I don't consider it fully blown moderate icing until the props are audibly shedding. I called the icing light/moderate- more that light, less than moderate. Certainly nowhere near severe.
I have personally seen 4" horns on the probe, and they appeared within a few seconds. THAT is severe icing, and I hand flew an emergency descent to escape it. It was shed completely in about 30 seconds after leveling off at a much warmer altitude. The controls were clearly sluggish at AP disengage, and the props were shedding something fierce (it helps to bring them up to a higher rpm, which I did for the descent). From the top of the drop to level off was 4K feet, and I did it at a rate of 4000 fpm. That's SCREAMING vertically for a Dash moving at 230 knots. The control forces/response returned to normal within 15 seconds after beginning the descent. That makes sense- usually 1,000' makes all the difference in my experience.
The automation is there for a reason- to mitigate a high-workload environment. The conditions did not even remotely preclude the use of it.
But as details begin to emerge- it looks like something far more insidious occurred. The two words that make Dave and I flinch, shake our heads, say a little prayer...
If you'd like, Dave- I can email you a photograph of a Dash8 during light/moderate ice accretion.
JACE
Here is the photo, since I thought there was a link to an email address for Dave.
This was taken a few years ago by a F/O in cruise, and about 30 seconds later the crew requested a descent just to find a better altitude- it seemed apparent that the propellers were going to start shedding, and that's a lot of noise. It shows the higher end of the light-moderate spectrum. The 'cap' on the spinner is rime ice, and it is just about the size we see when the propellers start to audibly shed the ice. Very close to moderate accretion, yet well within the capability of the ice protection. It is blurry because of the shutter setting, not due to ice on the windshield.
Note the absence of ice on the leading edges, and only vestigial remnants on the engine intake boot. The vertical white lines on the wings are where boot segments begin and end, hence the ice is a little more recalcitrant there.
The white stuff on the blue paint above the engine inlet wasn't ice- the paint takes a beating there. Imagine what your car would look like if we cycled it through the temps these planes see on a daily basis. Add the flex from aerodynamic forces and vibe from the props- they get repainted often in mx. There IS some ice there, but not much.
JACE, Your comment was very informative and reassuring about the icing related issues.
May I ask, what are the "two words" to which you refer at the end that make you and Dave flinch, pray, etc.?
God rest their souls.
@Learning,
You're welcome. I hope the fears are somewhat assuaged with a little explanation.
The "two words" are the last thing a pilot wants on the epitaph.
As of right now, it is all speculation, though. Two professionals at work ended their day exactly the opposite we'd ever want- if we have to die with our boots on, we pray like hell we'll be able to save someone in the back, if not everyone.
That's our job.
God rest all of them in the tragedy.
Minor nitpicking but the Q400's engines are rated at 5071 eshp each, not 2000. Excellent post, Dave.
Minor nitpicking rule:
If you're going to pick nits, make sure you're on sold ground- otherwise, you're just scratching your head.
The PW150 engine is DE-rated to ~5071 shp. It is spec'ed as such on the Pratt website, but the information is out there. [It can produce much, much more power (north of 7,000 shp).]
The PT6-67B is another example of a derated engine, and there are many many more. That PT6 variant was a screamin' demon on the PC12 I flew... god, in the last millennium! It would produce a full 1200 ponies way higher than a sea-level rated 1200 engine, because the engine produced 1600 horsies at ISA/SL unfettered.
Dave was talking about the 120A engines, by the way.
Just another definition of an expert:
'X' = an unknown quantity
Spurt = a drip under pressure
As a Q400 pilot I am greatful to read everyone's vote of confidence in the aircraft. I have flown all 4 models of Dash-8's. I will say the Q400 has so far proven itself to be a good airplane in ice. There are some major differences in the elevator and trim system, however, and would be curious to see if this took part in the tragic accident.
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